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I just added this one. They have lots of good financial perspective and resources but also are big on health and wellness as well.
Here is a good video they just uploaded. -
I love how you post the written transcript of the videos. -
Chris was on ITM Trading about the upcoming energy shock. It sounds pretty scary what could be coming.
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Hi everyone, welcome back to the Danella Camboni Show. Well, here's the facts. They can lie about inflation. They can lie about the war. They can lie to physics. The economy is not stocks. The economy is not speeches. The economy is energy. So, enter Dr. Chris Martinson at Duke, PhD, Cornell, the the man behind the crash course and peak prosperity. the man who has been screaming for years that you cannot print barrels, you cannot tweak diesel into existence, and you cannot run a debt system on a fairy
tale called energy independence. His case right now is brutal. Choke points are breaking, refineries are getting hit, shipping is a mess, and the official story is that everything is fine, but physics is proving otherwise. When energy gets scarce, prices, jobs, and the dollars all follow. So, while Wall Street sells the narrative, Chris is here to tell us the truth. Uh, Chris Martinson, uh, let's go. Excited to have you on the show. I mean, I obviously caught uh your discussion on Tucker Carlson, which helped me reconnect with
you since I knew you in in my past life of when I was at Kicko. Um, and you've just been everyone's dying to know what you have to say, which is a really important message that I'd love for you to share with with my audience here today, Chris. >> Well, thank you, Danielle. Well, it's it's such a pleasure and actually it's sort of not a pleasure too. I I really wish we'd done this differently, this being how we're approaching as a nation, as a globe right now, um energy. And we
had so many opportunities. You know, I think uh Warren Buffett said it well a number of years ago. He said when when we look at the epitth of the United States experiment, he said it should be labeled squanderville because we're squandering our opportunities. We're we're blessed with like abundant gas, abundant oil, but we didn't use that abundance to really plan for the future. And now we're sort of stumbling into this really giant energy crisis. And and it's the biggest of anybody's lifetimes,
right? Um it's not even close. We had the oil embargo of 73 to 74 that went from October to March and about 6 months. And what happened was uh just as a reminder the the Arab countries decided to reduce their output by about 5% a month. So by the time March came around the world had suffered about a 9% decline in oil. Flash forward and we attack on March 1st and within 2 days uh the straight of Hormuz has been shut down and we are suffering as a world about a 20% decline in oil and oil products all at once. The
shock of that is extraordinary and just like you said in your intro, the response has been puzzling because what the western countries have decided to do is just tap into their strategic reserves. And um obviously there's a lot of concern that somebody has been monkeying with the oil futures market to suppress prices and and it's just a lot of fakery to try and pretend like everything's okay, release our strategic reserves, bang on the oil price a little bit and somehow this all works out. And
meanwhile, behind the scenes, we're just watching absolute stock piles go to levels we've never seen before on a global basis. We know that there's a tank bottom, an operational floor out there somewhere. We don't know exactly where, but it's coming. And nothing that this administration is doing suggests they have even the slightest bit of urgency to really get the straight reopened and to stop the Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which tells me this could get bad.
>> Wow. Okay. So, how close are we? I mean, how much time do we have, Chris, before the straw breaks the camel's back? >> Great question. I think it's it's one of these things where we have to say local mileage is going to vary in this story. So, the United States is, I think, uh, more blessed than most. We we have abundant natural gas reserves here. We've got decent oil production currently. Quick point though, we're still a net oil importer, mostly from Canada, but also Venezuela and Mexico,
to a lesser extent, the Middle East. But we are still a net oil importer. It gets confused cuz, you know, the EIA confused this about 5, six years ago. They they started lumping things into what they called petroleum, which when I was growing up was a synonym for oil. You could say oil or petroleum. You meant the same thing. Now petroleum means anything that comes out of the ground that's got carbon and hydrogen on it, except natural gas. includes propane, butane, ethane, everything. Um, and we
have a lot of those things, those natural gas liquids. But crude oil, the stuff that we actually refine, turn into diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, but also asphalt and all the other lower distillates, that's the stuff that we run our economy on. And on that basis, the United States is still a net importer. So, we need the world, you know, we need to be part of that larger global world. And um, uh, you know, obviously we're taking some risks. So you asked what happens first? Who gets it worst? Obviously almost all of that
oil that was coming out of the straight of famu is also the Bob elmeneb straight on the red sea. Those are all going to the Pacific basin. Now normally that means China, India, Pakistan, >> Japan, but it also means California. Different story there. Um, and as well, uh, Russia got converted from being the number two diesel exporter into a diesel importer, which is kind of like waking up and hearing that Iowa had to import corn, you know, for some reason. It's like one of those puzzling moments. Um
so we've actually seen two sustained attacks on the energy infrastructure which was the number one exporting unit which was through the straight of her which is collectively all the Gulf states pounded and then also Russia getting hit at the same time almost perfectly coincidentally. So when we look at that, we we're we're undergoing a very very sustained assault on the world's global energy systems. And the thing that I'm starting to see catch up in the news a little bit. The news is
starting to go, not you, but I mean the news, they're starting to go, hey, wait, this this could get ugly, right? Um and they should have woken up to that I think in March, maybe April, the latest, right? But they're starting to come around like, oh, this this could be bad. And Europe in particular is going to be the touchstone for this. Uh Europe is in very bad shape right now. natural gas stores way down. Um they obviously cut off all of their Russian imports both of piped gas but also piped oil. The Drewba
pipeline all but closed down at this point in time. Oil imports from Russia no good. And um and then Saudi Arabia just recently uh cut all um ladings going to Europe for September and October because of the East West pipeline that got hit. So Europe is going to actually get this worse first, but it's going to spread from there. We'll get right back to the interview, but this is an important moment to ask yourself when the next crisis hits, will you be properly positioned or wish you prepared earlier? I've spent over two
decades reporting on global economic shifts and what's happening now is unprecedented. In moments like this, timely decisions are critical. That's why we've put together the private wealth playbook. It's a free guide showing you how to use gold and silver strategically for protection, privacy, and long-term performance. Click below or visit dannyreport.com to download it now so you can move forward with clarity and confidence. Now, back to the show. Well, I mean, first of all, on top of
this, we have this tra trade war with Canada that you wouldn't think the US would want to take on now in the current situation, but now Europe, it seems, needs Canada. Well, yes. Canada has one problem, which is how do they get the oil out? It's mostly in in the Alberta basin up there a little bit in Saskatchewan. Um, but the the question, you know, they they've blocked for themselves. They've shot themselves in their feet many times. They need a pipeline to get it out. Um, and so most of those pipelines they do
have run south to the US. So, the Canada's exporting to us about four and a half million barrels a day, 47. It's it's very decent. But you can I think you made a great point. I was scratching my head too like why now of all the times to pick a trade battle with your number one oil importing part exporting partner why now you know it seems like very odd timing to put all that on and so yes Canada is very very quickly trying to develop deeper relationships with Europe also China and so we'll see
how that all plays out but it's all starting to stack it's very mysterious like like if I was Danielle if I was trying to actively wreck the country I don't know what I would be doing much differently. >> It is all very mysterious. And getting back to your point of you don't you don't feel this sense of urgency to end uh the straight of Hormuz drama like why are we or maybe that is happening behind the scenes. I mean everyone's talking about this is the greatest game of chess and whatnot and
everyone I mean it just doesn't make sense Chris. >> Well it doesn't. And so I I tend to go by what people do, Danielle, and not not what they say. So Trump keeps saying Iran wants a deal or we want a deal. Somebody wants a deal, but none seems to materialize. I haven't actually seen any new deal constructs since the ones that fell apart three or four months ago, right? Iran had their points of view. We had ours. There were a lot of places where there were no overlaps whatsoever.
You know, reparations and, you know, control of the straight of Hermuz and tolls or whatever on Iran's side. And we wanted the complete opposite of all that. and I didn't see that there was really any diplomatic progress that I could count on besides what Trump was tweeting out on True Social, you know, which didn't really count. Um, so that's that's this the truth of the situation. All the United Like first off, let's just get something clear. The United States has no military option where it
can force the strait to be open. Right now, we're guiding ships through, but every single day, including this morning, we read about Iran hitting another tanker in that convoy line that's trying to make it through there. So >> Mhm. >> it it it's clear that we don't we the United States, we do not control the straight. It was going to be almost impossible to given the state of missile technology these days and etc. So if we really wanted the straight open very clearly, all we'd have to do is back off
and say, "Okay, Iran, go ahead and and charge a toll and let's go." And by the way, the toll that Iran originally proposed was a dollar a barrel. Sounds like a lot. A million to2 million dollars a ship. you know, if it's a one or two million barrel ship can, but right now to actually get a barrel of oil out of the Gulf to its location is now because of the sir charge because of all this drama is now $28 a barrel. So that sounds like a lot more than a dollar to me. Um, so if we really cared
about the economics of it too, we would just back off and allow uh the resumption of of shipping to come out of that region. And we're not doing that. So, paint the picture um for the people watching at home, Chris, because I mean, you know, people watching and including myself, I mean, I'm already feeling the pain as I'm sure you are, Chris, at the grocery store, at the pump. I mean, I went I went to book a flight to Zurich the other day. I couldn't believe uh the price of of that flight. Um so, we're
already feeling the pain. So when you say, you know, it's going to get worse, like we're going to hit a crisis, I'm imagining bigger than the 1970s you're referring to, I mean, what's that world going to look like? How much pain is that going to be? >> So here's here's why I'm a huge critic of the way that that this administration is going about this. Um, you know, early in March, we had even reports in the Financial Times saying that the big traders at houses like VTOL, all the big
oil trading houses, they knew that there was a brand new mysterious big player who just stepped in who's was selling oil. Now, if you're >> you're your your your listeners will know this. If you're in the commodity space, I don't care. You're in cotton, you're in corn, you're in copper, >> you know the tape. When you see the tape hitting, you know who's on the other side of that nine times out of 10, like you have a feel for it. This is all these people do. You know, they suddenly
had a new mystery player showing up that was just interested in selling oil in the futures. Fine. I can understand the political dimensions of that if you did that for a few weeks or something, but we're going on like six months of it. And so, we just came through a period as of this recording. Oil's a little bit up today. But the prior seven days down day after day after day. And this is after the East West pipeline just took another 3 to four million barrels per day offline, which is one of the big that
counts literally as one of the biggest shocks in in oil history all on its own. >> Um and uh and and we saw oil spike up for a day or two, but then mysteriously just down down. Now that's for the futures. If you want to buy a barrel of oil, it's called dated Brent. That's today. I'm a I'm a refiner. I got to call somebody. I need a barrel today. >> That number is actually 120. Plus, if I want it shipped to me, which I probably do, we're going to have to add another
15 to $28 a barrel depending on where it's coming from. >> So, the real price of oil is closer to 130 to$150 depending on how we count that all up. Now, we go over to diesel and we say, "Oo, 650 a gallon, 7 a gallon, whatever it is right now, depending on where you are." That is consistent with a price of oil that's closer to 200 a barrel to 220. Now, does that mean the refiners are gouging people? Nope. It's that's this is how the markets actually work. You know, the
gas station, which Trump blamed, the gas station owners, like they're gouging people. They're price takers. The gas station owners. The tanker truck shows up, drops off the product, tells them what the price is. The tanker truck guy, not him either. He's got to go to the mid-level distributor and and fill up, takes the price from them, gets about 30 cents a gallon to deliver it. What about those people with those tanks? They too have to bid for it. and so on and so on and so on up the chain. Uh and and
that's how the price is actually set in the marketplace. So what we're experiencing in diesel right now is actual supply and demand with price being the deciding factor to settle out price and demand. Supply and demand that's the true state of things I think you're going to be seeing in that product, not the futures price of oil, >> right? That's the true state. And what does that h how how how big of an impact will this be on the economy? Like if I had to ask you to choose the best
sentence to sum that up of what that means for the American economy, Chris, >> if it doesn't get worse, hold let's hold it steady for a second. Um was just 650 a gallon for a while. Easy. Uh that's going to be very inflationary. Diesel is an input cost to literally every single good that's delivered u manufactured and consumed anywhere in this country, right? It's just part of part of shipping. It's part of manufacturing. It's part of uh mining. It's part of
everything. So guaranteed inflationary. Um and so that's if we just hold things steady. Here's the concern. >> The concern is that because we haven't allowed normal market mechanisms to allow the price of oil to rise to a level that would actually have settled supply and demand at some point. That's how markets are supposed to work. I mean, you know this, right? The the most enduring chart. You take econ 101 in college or even high school, you have the PQ chart, right? Price, supply, and
and demand. And there's a price in there that that matches supply and demand up. So, that has been um bastardized for a while. It it the price is wrong. And here's how I know the price is wrong. If the price is right, supply and demand balance out. If the price is too low, our supplies are going to go away. Now, have we seen that? Absolutely. You look at global onshore oil supplies right now and that chart is just going down and down and down and down because we're eating into those supplies. Why? Because
the price isn't high enough to kill off enough demand so that we can balance that equation out. So that's a very easy way to detect that the price is wrong, not that the price is right. People always say, "Oh, Chris, markets markets are efficient." I'm like, "Not when you're watching this one non-negotiable substance." This isn't like, oh, you know, shares of like GME or, you know, uh, silver in a vault. This is the this is the non-negotiable substance in our
life. And let me let me make the oil business super clear for people. We get it out, we take it out of the ground, we store it for a little while, and then we set it on fire. That's the whole thing. So, we have to, you know, keep those that flow of it balanced at all times. And right now, we're we're burning more than is being produced. and we're watching the supplies go down and that is a ticking clock in the story. So to get to your question directly after a long circuitous path Daniela here's my
concern. We should have allowed normal price mechanisms to rise through March through April through May. It would have been painful. Oil would have risen to probably 250. That's fine. But then over those many months the marginal activities sort of get pruned off delicately, right? you decide not to take a trip, I decide not to drive a certain place, companies decide not to do certain things, but that we we have time to react to the price signal. What I think is going to happen at this pace is we're just going
to sail along mostly pretending nothing's wrong. The DOE just announced another, you know, 40 $50 million barrel release from the SPR. Does anybody want it? We're just busy draining the tanks. That's fine. You keep the price down until such a time as you run out and then you get into shortages. Now a shortage is not the same signal as a price hike. A shortage means nobody gets any or you have to suddenly engage in triage and then you remember during co when we had people deciding that this
small store is non- essential but Target was essential anyway you're going to have bureaucrats deciding where the diesel goes and I think we all know >> see that >> yeah it'll be a disaster guaranteed. It'll be inefficient here. Let me be polite. Uh, I guess just to wrap this, um, can we correlate this back to gold, Chris? I mean, we cover a lot of gold here and, uh, you know, just earlier this week, I saw the headline of China, uh, gold imports approach 1,200 tons. So, they're accumulating more gold. We
saw the Dutch wanting their gold back out of out of New York, out of Canada. uh there seems to be a lot of movement and shift you know obviously with oil but also with gold where central banks keep keep hoarding gold. Any any comments on what's happening on the gold market? >> Yeah. So Danielle um a lot of things broke right around the war. Um so I'm talking March, April, May. And one of those was that gold for a very long time in all my charts has been positively correlated with the price of oil. And
that makes sense, right? So if to the extent gold's an inflation hedge and every time oil goes up that's inflationary at least it's a price hike. So those two things had a very nice tight positive correlation. Sometimes it went to zero and tiny bit right around March that went and became a negative correlation >> and that I I can't I don't have an organic explanation for that given that also we look at the export statistics for gold for the US non-monetary gold exports through the roof. China's buying
like crazy. you just mentioned, you know, the Netherlands wanted theirs back and there's actually been a global sort of a race at least at the official level to get gold, but I think also privately. Uh remember JP Morgan moved their gold desk to Singapore, right? What you know? Um so these are all signs that obviously gold is has a lot of demand, but it suddenly became negatively correlated with oil. >> And this is where I start to suspect that Scott Bent's a very interventionist kind of guy. Um remember he blew up two
hedge funds, not one but two. It's rare to get a second chance on Wall Street. Um, but then he I I think he's very clearly telegraphed that he thinks he knows the right prices for things, what the yen should be, what treasuries ought to be, what gold ought to be, what oil ought to be. He's that kind of guy. Um, and my suspicion is that the that we've had um some invisible hands really playing in this market and and it's pretty obvious when you see long-standing relationships like the the
correlation of gold and oil suddenly break down at the opening stages of a war, >> gold suppression. >> Yeah, I have a pet theory. I can't prove it but that I I think that remember so Trump went over with like all the CEOs Musk and everybody and uh May 17th and right in April was when you know how these trade delegations go they're on the phone a lot they they don't just show up and start talking like talking happens beforehand um and it was right in April second week of that China
suddenly crashed cratered its oil imports and they went down four and a half to 5 million barrels a day which is huge and that really helped out the global balance of pricing uh which obviously Trump cared a lot about the price of oil. So my theory can't prove it is that a call was made and said hey we'll keep the price of gold down so you can acquire it at a cheaper price if you can help us out with the price of oil. And I think the reason we cared a lot about the price of oil besides the
political optics for Trump to be able to say oh people told me it was going to be 300 a barrel. Look it's not even 100. Um, besides those political optics, the tightest relationship that's been out there for a while is the rel r ratio from the 10-year yield to the price of oil. And the 10-year yield was starting to get really spicy. And of course, we're very worried about that here in the US, certainly at the Treasury Department level because, >> right, >> it doesn't take much of a a yield hike
before we get into a fiscal funding crisis. You know, the stresses are building, but you know, as of this recording today, the 10-year yield popped again back over. It was 5.05 last I checked the 2-year 4.87 87 last I checked which means the Fed is 50 75 basis points behind the curve right now and a lot of pressure to hike rates which is going to be very bad for the government funding and there's a lot of moving pieces here all of a sudden >> a lot of moving pieces um really interesting thoughts I mean
would you be a buyer of gold here Chris >> absolutely I'm not a seller I'll tell you that much um I I actually truly believe that listen you know my entire adult life um I've ever seen anything other than this? When push comes to shove, the Federal Reserve prints. When push comes to shove, the US government spends and spends more and it doesn't know how to reel it back in. Remember, we had the emergency COVID, we went from 1 trillion deficit to two trillion deficit, and it's been there ever since,
right? We we know how to spend more, not less. Um, and I only see more spending pressures going forward. And in particular, I'm watching that 10-year yield like a hawk cuz we're at we're we're at levels we haven't seen since 2007, right? Which is right before that crisis. So, we know we've got a housing bubble now. Housing affordability is worse than it was, believe it or not, in 2006. Um, we've got this AI capex buildout, which nobody can explain how we're going to where the revenues going
to come to pay all that stuff back. Nobody knows. Um, and we've got uh what's clearly a very very large energy shock that is going to be completely immune to whatever the Fed does. Raise rates, lower rates, print money, QE, twist, doesn't matter. Independent because now we're talking physics. This is this is molecules. This is a totally different beast. Yeah. >> And that's the point. They can't print themselves out of that energy shock. And even though war, if you read between the
lines of the Jacksonville speech, he said he's not going to do the gimmicks of Bernani and Yellen, but I I agree with you. I think ultimately push come to shove, they're going to have to do QE, Chris, >> whatever they want to call it, right? That that I don't think they can stop that big print and they're going to have to. But >> yeah, no, I agree with you, uh, Daniel, because the the Fed the Fed has a very different problem from the Treasury and and it's been interesting. This is the
first time also in my adult life where I've started to see some daylight between those two entities, right? Scott Bent, I'm guarantee you, called up Wars early on and said, "Hey, can you help us out with this 10-year bond?" And and and War said, "Nope, not not doing it." And then you saw Scott come out and say, "Oh, we'll use Treasury funds from the Treasury General account. We'll buy them." which is a silly idea, but anyway, we won't get into that. So,
that's a little bit of daylight. So, let's look at the Fed's problem. They have one product on their shelf, right? They are like Walmart with one product on one shelf, and that's the dollar. So, they have to decide how they're going to manage that one product. And so, I think we're at the stage where they're going to have to make a Japan style choice. Do we save the bonds or do we save the dollar? You You got to pick one. So, what does that mean? Save the bonds. Yields are going up. QE, we print money
out of thin air and we buy those bonds. The yield comes down. But now we've just emitted a whole lot of dollars into the system. And of course that starts tanking the dollar. So they could do the opposite. They could let yields really rise. It saves the dollar, but now it blows up all kinds of, you know, um, balance sheets and budgets all over state, federal, municipal, doesn't matter. Uh, it starts getting really bad. So So that's the that's where the Fed is. >> They'll always save the bonds. That's
what they do. And I I agree with that choice actually. I think they have to save the bond market. >> And Trump wants a lower dollar. >> He does, but I don't think he knows how how how out of control that could get because it's it's so so again a lot of moving pieces. Let's back up a bit. The United States has has an 800 $900 billion trade deficit right now. That's 800 or $900 billion that needs to go offshore and stay there, right? and preferably it gets sterilized into US
treasuries sitting on on foreign accounts. Foreign central banks are are actually disording treasuries right now in total. H so that's a problem. So we're emitting we're still emitting all these dollars but now now what happens to them? >> Second, we also had this petro dollar. It ran for nearly 50 years. Um and that's created a huge amount of offshore dollars that are parked out there, right? They're sitting in Cayman Islands accounts. They're sitting in sovereign
wealth funds. They're sitting in uh central banks. They're parked all over the place. If you really start tanking the dollar, all those holders of those dollars, it becomes a self-reinforcing thing. They're like, "Well, I don't want the dollars. What else do I have?" And this is where it gets really spicy and interesting. And it's why I say however much gold you own, you don't have enough. Uh myself included. Because once you get that process started where those
offshore holders, which is probably 10, 20 trillion, it's hard to get our hands around it cuz the Fed stopped counting M3 in 2006. Bless their hearts. Um, so we don't really know how much is out there, but it's a lot. And if those dollars just even partially say, I don't want dollars and I don't want to put them into treasuries to offset, where's it go? Are you going to buy German bonds? Are you going to buy Can't really buy Chinese bonds. I mean, what are you going to do? And the options are are
the the exits are small in this story when you're talking numbers at this level. And is that hyperbole? No. That Norway's sovereign wealth fund almost $2 trillion under management said we don't want treasuries anymore. Right? >> Uh that's a big that's a big moment. Even Jamie Demon came out of JP Morgan said not a fan of treasuries here. I mean we're getting a lot of heat on the treasury market and that is the core of the nuclear reactor in this story. >> Wow.
Really excellent thoughts, Chris. Uh, thank you so much uh for for this discussion. Uh, you really nailed it. Uh, Chris Martin said people can read more on Peak Prosperity. Where can they find more of your work? >> Peakrossperity.com is my main website. I'm there seven days a week because this is a full contact sport. Um, also at x uh my name Chris Martinson. I use my real name out in the real world. Also on all the other places. I got a nice YouTube channel, Instagram, anywhere you want to find me, I'm I'm there. It's how
I roll. >> Yep. Yep. Well, I'm glad that we we found each other. Uh thank you so much for coming on the show and we'll be in touch. >> Thank you. Thank you for the opportunity >> and thank you all for watching. We'll have more great content coming your way.
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