Good morning, everyone, from Join the Dots. This should come to you Wednesday. Now, I say that because it's very important that you watch Monday and Tuesday's shows because there was an absolutely superb interview with Grant Williams. And it took two shows to dissect it and describe it. But they are vital for you to understand because everything that comes today, which is almost the whole world of finance, was covered in that Grant Williams interview. So, please make sure you watch Monday and Tuesday's shows.
Okay, so we're starting off today macro with London property market. And I've got a piece here I'm going to link and send to you from Savills talking about how the billionaire market is okay, but the millionaire market is really suffering. And it says that property prices in the millionaire range in Mayfair, St. James, Belgravia, Knightsbridge, Chelsea, Kensington, all the primaries of London, are down. Listen to this figure. More than 25% since Listen to this date. 2014. I kid you not.
Okay, so look at that look at that link to Savills report. Please, because tax changes, political uncertainty, higher rates, higher taxes, particularly, are leaving are lending themselves to make people leave the cities. And that leaves property crises developing. Not here yet, but developing. Okay, and again, the billionaires succeeding, K-shaped economy. The rich, the super rich, are getting super richer. And the normal middle class are being pushed down to the poor where they become dependent. Because that's the aim. That's the aim, at the end of the day, of this is to take away the middle class. Greg Mannarino's been talking about it for 3-4 years. Strip the middle class of their independence, right?
Now, we come on to Australian property because again, this was referred to me by Duncan Cook 3789. Thank you, Duncan. You're linking quite a few pieces. Quite interesting. Thank you. This is a guy we've featured two or three times before. He's an auctioneer in Australia and he describes the fact that he's been to six auctions and there's not one registration. Not one person has registered. I'm just going to get my phone to work here because I've got the Let's have a look at what he says. He says it is the worst auction time in his 30 years. His worst auction time in 30 years. There it is. Worst auction day in 30 years.
Okay, so that's link number two. Please watch it because again, join these dots. Please join these dots. Property prices falling in all capital cities across the Western world. That means Australia, Canada as well and Japan and other centers. They're falling. Actually, I won't say Japan because Japan, because of the weak yen, is actually attracting some buying.
Link number three, BTC liquidations, Bitcoin liquidations. Very briefly, there's a report out. It shows two companies selling their treasury assets. They aren't treasury assets, are they? They just bought some Bitcoin to try and make some money. All right? And now they're selling them because the price is going down. Of course, it starts to constrain their balance sheet, what they can do in their real business and they're selling off. So, to me, I see this as a fundamental risk to Bitcoin. All right? It's a fundamental risk that companies who bought Bitcoin and put it in their treasury and are oh, we're so clever, we're so clever, are suddenly finding that they're having to sell it to clean their balance sheet up. And as rates go up, as liquidity gets harder, they need more liquidity. They need to force their balance sheet to work more. And that's not sitting in Bitcoin. It's just a risk that I see a lot of people haven't talked about it. Maybe I'll be wrong. We don't know.
Okay, link of the day. And we're going back to our friend OG John AG and the source code. Now, he is getting a lot more limited on his presentations now, and I understand why because he was absolutely slammed by JP Morgan and Jane Street and anyone else in the manipulation game because he exposed them 100%. Do you remember? He exposed them 100%. And it was the day after he called out JP Morgan that his source code site went poof. Or OG John AG was just taken off the air. He's back as the source code. Watch it, please. Now, I'm going to take you through one episode, and I'm only going to take you through the first half in the rest of this link of the day presentation because there's so much in it. Because obviously doing less presentations means he can concentrate more on an awful lot of things. Or has to. So, first of all, take this insert. It's the first 2 minutes 28, and I want you to really understand what he's saying because it's your job to invest. It is not your job to listen to someone else and do what they said. It's your job to work hard to invest. You can make or lose more money in your investments than you can working for 5 years. So, you have to spend some time. You do not just listen to one person and do what they say. That's why I bring you join the dots. There are lots There are hundreds There are thousands of people out there all with different opinions, and we try and find those that are the very, very best opinions. So, please listen to the first 2 minutes 28.
OG John AG insert:
Someone dropped a comment under the last video. Should I hold my silver or should I sell it? That was the whole message. And before I go anywhere near a chart today, I have to stop on that question because the question is the problem. I do not like it. Not from you, not from anyone. Nobody on this earth should be able to walk up and talk you into or out of what you do with your own money. That part was never mine to carry for you. It is yours. It was always yours. Here's what I want to see in that comment box instead. OG, I pulled the data myself. I did the homework. Here is my plan. This is my time frame. My risk is defined to the dollar. And whether it is a 20-year hold or a 20-minute trade, it does not change a thing because the plan is mine and I can defend every line of it. That is the comment of a free person. The other one is the comment of a dependent one. Nobody talks me out of a position because I did the work to get into it, and I have been doing it for two decades. Most of you know me for the macro, the long game, the big picture, the metals. That is not the whole of it. I am also an active trader, and I trade markets that have nothing to do with metals down on the fast time frames. I have sat on the 1-minute chart. I have sat on the 15-second chart. To most people, that is gambling. To me, it is the furthest thing from gambling there is, because I know what I am doing before I do it. I know when. I know how. I know my exit before I am ever in the trade. I know my invalidation. I know my target. I know how long I expect to sit in that seat down to the detail. I have logged that data on myself for years, thousands of times over, until I built models for different market environments. So, by the time a setup is in front of me, it is almost mechanical. I do not get surprised inside a trade. And the metals are the opposite end of that same discipline. Those I hold for the long term, and nobody tells me when to buy them or when to sell them. Not the metal, not a single position I hold. I know exactly why I am in it and exactly how long I intend to stay. And I am telling you all of this today for one reason, and it is not to impress you. It is so you understand that none of it is a gift and none of it is luck. It is reps. It is years of logging my own decisions and being honest with myself about the bad ones over and over until the flinch was gone. Every piece of that is something you can build for yourself, and nobody, me included, can build it for you. So, when you send me that question, understand what it does. It does not help you. It exposes you. It says you do not have a plan of your own. It says you are leaning on mine. And leaning is exactly how you end up eaten. That is the line between prey and a predator. And I am not going to dress it up as anything gentler than that. I am not your financial advisor. I have never wanted to be, and I never will be.
And one piece you'll take out of that is metals are for the long term, the generational wealth. They're not trades. They're not trades. I had a look at the figures, and we started this service at the beginning of July 25, just over a year ago. Silver was then 35.50, so it's up 60%. Gold was 3312, so it's up 25%. I'm very happy with that. Extremely happy with those returns. As you know, I'm weighted towards silver, 70% silver, 30% gold, or 25% gold and 5% a bit of XRP as my HBAR and XLM as my crypto hedge. Not there to make money in per se, they're as a hedge in case we go into a crypto base world.
All right. So, let's turn on confidence. And he talks about this, and he talks about confidence is having experience, logic, a plan, a rationale, listening to the right voices who all have shown all those qualities, i.e. logic, a plan, experience, rationale, not just YouTube whizzes who pop up and tell you to do something and then disappear when it doesn't work. All right, all of these All of this experience is what I bring you in Join the Dots, and no more so Yes, I've done a lot of good in all linked a lot of good interviews, but that Grant Williams one was pretty special. All right. So, the last two episodes, Monday and Tuesday that you've seen, watch them again, watch them twice, maybe watch them three times, because they're worth listening to.
All right. So, what do we get to really in in what source code is telling us? We're at the end of financialization. How many times have I told you that in the last year? We're at the end of cheap debt. I've told you the same. We're at the end of no or low inflation. Commodities are all going to boom, aren't they? Doesn't matter which way the world turns. Either they're going to be secure assets, safe assets, or they're going to become necessary for the build-out of massive new infrastructure to cope with the world and the decoupling from China as it as the world's main source. The total dependence that China has created or the West has allowed to be created, it doesn't matter who's to blame, means they have to build out. The end of arrogant disregard, I call it. And that is obviously becoming dependent on someone that you can't rely on. The end of peace, again. The end of globalization, again. The end of the luxury of dependence. Yes, I like that one. The end of the luxury of dependence. We feasted on dependence, and now that dependence is turning against us. What are we going to do? So, I say that brings the end of freedom because all of those things are going to disappear. And that means to take you into the next world, they have to take your freedom away to be able to take you into that next world cuz you ain't going to want to go there on your own because it's going to be very very unsettling. And we've talked about that a lot in all the shows. We've talked about how the people now are being forced or will be forced into a new system. And you can't take them there. You can't say oh you can't explain it to them. No one wants to hear. No one's got the time. No one's got the patience. You can't sit down and say, "Oh, let's have a big discussion about how we're going to take you into No, it has to be forced. So, therefore, you need a crisis, and that's why you have the metals as your generational wealth. Gold is your safety. Silver, I think, is your investment.
So, Rick Rule sees it as well. So, insert 3 minutes to 4 minutes 15, an explanation of sentiment and the incorrect professional opinions through this period. Please listen.
OG John AG insert:
Purpose. Skip and you miss the point. I know this part is uncomfortable, but it is the part you actually need more than any level I am about to hand you. If a man is telling you to just follow him, walk away from him. If you are relying on anyone, me included, you will not make it, period. You will not survive this market. That is not me being harsh with you. That is the entire reason this channel exists, not to make you need me, to turn you into an apex predator who never does. And that, right there, is why a certain crowd cannot stand me. Not because I am loud, because they know I see more than they see. And worse than that, I can act on it. And I am handing it to you for nothing, the exact thing they could not deliver even when you paid them for it. One more thing before we touch a single chart, and it weighs as much as anything on the board today. Sentiment. Look around and half the room has quietly turned bearish on the metals. Gold is done, they tell you. Silver is finished. And why? Because of a retracement. That is the whole reason. Not the vaults, not the physical, not one number that actually matters. A pullback on a screen. These are the same people who would not touch gold or silver when it was cheap and hated, and who fall in love with it at the all-time high. They only want the asset when it is expensive and crowded. Sit with what that makes them the moment the move runs. It makes them the fuel. It makes them the exit liquidity for everybody who bought the discount they were too scared to touch. That is the entire role they play. That is all they
I think it's a brilliant description. Remember, no banks, no banks have been buying gold and silver since whenever. No banks have been buying gold and silver. They've got their 60/40 portfolio, haven't they? 60 equities, 40 40 bonds. And now the bonds have come to the end of that 40-year period of financialization, which has been created by low bond rates, low inflation, low inflation. No official inflation, anyway. Despite what we see in food prices.
So, the next clip I'm going to give you is 7 minutes 30 to 8 minutes 51. Please listen.
OG John AG insert:
Now, watch the part the president will not put on a poster. Diesel is still trading at levels you last saw when crude was above $100, and it ticked higher again today. Lower crude on the screen does not help you when the fuel the real economy actually runs on keeps getting more expensive. So, a man can stand up and say oil is only 85, victory. The truck that brings your food does not run on the screen price. It runs on diesel, and diesel is telling the truth. Here's the bigger read on energy, and it is the one the long-term holder needs. We have moved out of the old world where commodities moved mostly on demand. Growth slows, oil falls, growth picks up, oil rises. That was the whole game before this decade. That game is over. The danger now is not soft demand. It is supply stress in the things the system cannot run without. And the cleanest tell for supply stress is backwardation. When the barrel you can get today costs more than the barrel promised to you next year. When that happens, the market is screaming that people want it now, that inventory is thin, that the system is paying up for the present. That is why oil can do exactly what silver did. Silver is dangerous on the upside because you cannot conjure new mine supply overnight. It takes years. Oil is dangerous for the opposite reason, because you cannot kill demand overnight. The world still has to move and eat and ship, no matter the price. Same trap from two directions. Supply cannot answer fast enough. The physical gets tight, the shorts get caught, price starts to run, the shorts are forced to cover, and the covering pours fuel
This covers diesel and silver. Now, that was an excellent interview by uh Mario Manic 64 of Peter Carlin on the diesel issue a few days ago. Please go back and watch it. Please go back. Okay, diesel and silver. How do you link those? I do, and so does OC OG John AG in 7 minutes 30 to 8 minutes 51. So, there are supply stresses in these vital commodities. Diesel is vital, silver is vital. Diesel to move things, silver in the new electronics world, the missile world, the bomb world, the data world, every world, the TV world, the EV world, silver.
All right. Now, we come on to the next clip. And this is 10 minutes 01 through to 12 minutes 30. It's the last insert. Please listen. It covers so many things that Grant Williams covers and that I've covered before. The trust in relationships, the trust in the yen, the Japanese carry trade, the rate rises, the intervention all failing. Please listen.
OG John AG insert:
That is the setup. The scarce assets keep rising even while the average person is struggling. Look at Japan, the clearest picture of a system out of tools. The yen just hit its weakest against the dollar since 1986, 40 years. And look at what they threw at it. In June, the Bank of Japan hiked to 1%, the highest since 1995, and normally that lifts a currency. The yen barely moved. Before that, they spent better than $73 billion buying yen directly. It firmed, then reversed. Then a push to force their giant pension fund into domestic assets. A pop, then nothing. Three tools, three failures, and the yen sits right back where it started. Adam Ferguson saw this in When Money Dies, his account of the Weimar collapse. The lesson is not the wheelbarrows of cash. It is that once a currency loses the trust of the people holding it, the official machinery stops working. It was never about which lever they pulled. It was confidence. Japan is not Weimar, and I will not pretend it is, but the mechanism is the same. A rate hike, a record intervention, a pension push, all shrugged off. That is what it looks like when the tools stop biting. And a weak yen is not just Japan's problem. It raises the cost of every barrel and every bit of food that island imports, feeding inflation already over target and eating into the real wages of ordinary households. And here is why that lands on you in America, whether you own a single yen or not. Japan is the largest foreign holder of United States debt, carrying its own debt worth better than 230% of its economy. To defend a sinking yen, Japan has two moves: hike rates or sell foreign assets. Selling foreign assets means selling US Treasuries. So, at the exact moment America is financing a war and paying more than 1.2 trillion dollars a year just in interest, its biggest foreign lender is being forced to become a seller. That is why yields are ripping higher across the whole developed world at once. And that is the quiet reversal almost nobody is pricing. For decades, cheap Japanese money flowed out and funded everything, every carry trade, every leveraged bet around the planet. That tide is turning home. The world was built around Japanese money leaving. Now it has to adjust to Japanese money coming back, which brings us to
Okay, so tomorrow we'll come back and we'll finish that show from 12 minutes 30 onwards cuz it starts to talk about bond markets then, which are so so so vital to what's going to happen. So, I hope you enjoyed today's show. Please watch that a few times. Please watch those clips from Source Code times. They are crucial to understand. And thank you very much man, from Craig, from me, and Mr. Fugly happily sleeping here. Cheers.
Woo!
